Na Finlay Colville
Nowemapa 17, 2022
E lawa ka polysilicon i hana ʻia ma 2022 e kākoʻo i ka hana ʻana o kahi 320GW o nā modula c-Si.Kiʻi: JA Solar.
Kuhi ʻia ka ʻoihana PV solar e hana i 310GW o nā modules i 2022, e hōʻike ana i kahi piʻi nui o 45% makahiki i ka makahiki i hoʻohālikelike ʻia me 2021, e like me ka noiʻi hou i hana ʻia e ka hui noiʻi mākeke PV Tech a i wehewehe ʻia i ka PV Manufacturing & Hōʻike ʻenehana i kēlā me kēia mahina.
ʻO ka mākeke ma 2022 i alakaʻi ʻia a hoʻonui ʻia e ka nui o ka polysilicon i hana ʻia ma ka makahiki.ʻOi aku ka nui o ka noi ma 50-100% ma mua o ka mea hiki ke hana ʻia.
E lawa ka polysilicon i hana ʻia ma 2022 e kākoʻo i ka hana ʻana o kahi 320GW o nā modula c-Si.E hoʻopau paha nā pae hana ʻo Wafer a me c-Si ma kahi o 315GW.ʻO ka hana module (c-Si a me ka kiʻiʻoniʻoni lahilahi) pono e kokoke i 310GW, me nā moku kūʻai hope loa ma 297GW.Ke kau nei au i kahi ± 2% hewa i hoʻopaʻa ʻia ma kēia mau waiwai i kēia manawa, me ʻeono pule o ka hana i koe no ka makahiki.
ʻO ka 297GW o nā modula i hoʻouna ʻia ma 2022, ʻaʻole e hopena ka nui o kēia i ka mana hoʻokomo PV hou.Ma muli o kekahi mau kumu;kekahi maʻamau, kekahi mea hou.ʻO ka hapa nui i ʻōlelo ʻia ʻo ia ka 'stockpiling' o nā modula ma nā kuʻuna US a me nā hoʻopaneʻe pili.Akā aia i kēia manawa he leo mahalo nui e hele ana i nā mea hoʻololi module a i ʻole nā mea kanu repowering.ʻO ka mana PV hou i hoʻohui ʻia ma 2022 hiki ke hoʻopau kokoke i 260GW ke ʻike piha ʻia kēia mau mea āpau.
Mai kahi hiʻohiʻona hana, ʻaʻohe mea kupanaha nui.Ua hana ʻo Kina i ka 90% o polysilicon, 99% o nā wafers, 91% o nā cell c-Si a me 85% o nā modules c-Si.A ʻoiaʻiʻo, makemake nā mea a pau i ka hana home, ʻoi aku hoʻi ʻo India, ʻAmelika a me ʻEulopa.ʻO ka makemake kekahi mea;he mea e ae.
Ma kahi o ka hapalua o ka polysilicon i hana ʻia ma Kina i ka makahiki 2022 no ka ʻoihana PV i hana ʻia ma Xinjiang.E hāʻule ana kēia lakio i kēlā me kēia makahiki e neʻe nei i kēia manawa, me ka manaʻo ʻole o ka mana hou e hele mai ma ka pūnaewele ma kēia wahi.
Ma ke ʻano o ka ʻenehana, n-type i hana nui, me TOPCon i kēia manawa ka hale hoʻolālā i makemake ʻia no nā alakaʻi o ka mākeke, ʻoiai ke manaʻo nei kekahi mau inoa koʻikoʻi e holo ma waena o ka heterojunction a me ka back-contact i ka multi-GW scale ma 2023. Aneane 20GW ʻO nā pūnaewele n-type e wānana ʻia e hana ʻia i 2022, a ʻo 83% ka TOPCon.Ke hoʻokele nei nā mea hana Kina i ka hoʻololi TOPCon;ma kahi o 97% o nā pūnaewele TOPCon i hana ʻia ma 2022 ma Kina.E ʻike paha i kēia makahiki aʻe i kēia hoʻololi, ʻoiai e hoʻomaka ana ʻo TOPCon e ʻimi i ke ala i loko o ka ʻāpana waiwai o US, kahi mea e koi ai i nā cell TOPCon e hana ʻia ma waho o Kina, aia paha ma Asia Hikina Hema, akā pili ia i ka mea e hana ʻia me nā noiʻi e pili ana. anti-circumvention ma ka US.
Ma nā ʻōlelo o ka hoʻouna ʻana i nā module i ka makahiki 2022, ua lilo ʻo ʻEulopa i ka lanakila nui, ʻoiai he 100GW-plus o nā modula i hana ʻia ma Kina a mālama ʻia ma Kina.Ma waho aʻe o ka US, ua ʻike nā mākeke hopena nui ʻē aʻe i ka ulu ʻana o ka ulu ʻana i ʻelua helu, e like me ka makemake manic no ka lā i hoʻopaʻa ʻia i ka honua i kēia manawa.
Ua pili ʻo ʻEulopa i kekahi mau pilikia ma 2022 i kumu i ʻike ʻia ai ka ulu nui.Ua lilo ka ʻāina i wahi hoʻouna no nā puke i loaʻa ʻole i ka mākeke US a ua hoʻopilikia koke ʻia hoʻi e nā hopena o ka hakakā ma Ukraine.Ma kahi kokoke i 67GW o nā modula i hoʻouna ʻia no ka mākeke ʻEulopa i 2022 - nā puke i manaʻo ʻole ʻia i hoʻokahi makahiki i hala.
I ka makahiki holoʻokoʻa, ua ʻike ʻia ka ʻoihana PV e ka huaʻōlelo hou ma nā lehelehe o kēlā me kēia kanaka: traceability.ʻAʻole i paʻakikī loa ke kūʻai ʻana i nā modula solar PV.
E hoʻokaʻawale i ka ʻoiaʻiʻo he 20-30% ke kiʻekiʻe o ke kumukūʻai ma mua o ʻelua mau makahiki i hala aku nei, ʻaʻole kūpono nā ʻaelike i kau inoa ʻia i ʻeono mahina i hala aku nei i ka pepa i kākau ʻia ai lākou, a i ʻole nā kumuhana ʻoi o ka hilinaʻi kahua a me ka hoʻohanohano ʻana i nā koi palapala.
ʻO ka ʻoi aku o kēia mau mea a pau i kēia lā ka conundrum traceability.ʻO wai ka mea e hana ai a ma hea i kēia lā, a ʻoi aku ka nui o ke kiko, ma hea lākou e hana ai i nā makahiki e hiki mai ana.
Ke hakakā nei ka honua ʻoihana me kēia pilikia i kēia manawa a me ke ʻano o ke kūʻai ʻana i kahi module PV.Ua kākau nui au ma PV Tech i nā makahiki he ʻumi i hala iho nei no ke kumu he mea nui e hoʻomaopopo i ka hapa nui o nā ʻoihana kūʻai aku i nā modula ʻaʻohe mea ʻē aʻe ma mua o ka huahana 'package' i hana ʻia e nā hui ʻē aʻe.Ma mua, ua manaʻo wau he mea nui ia e pili ana i ka hilinaʻi i ka maikaʻi;i kēia manawa ke hoʻonui ʻia nei e ka traceability a me ka pono e loiloi i nā kaulahao lako.
Pono ka poʻe kūʻai modula e hele i kahi papa pōʻino i ka hana ʻana i ka dynamics chain supply i kēia manawa, i ka ʻili ʻana i nā papa o kahi module a hoʻi i nā mea maka e komo i nā mea kanu polysilicon a puni ka honua.ʻO ka ʻeha e like me ka mea i ʻike ʻia, ʻoi aku ka nui o nā pōmaikaʻi hope loa, ma mua o ka loiloi traceability.
I kēia manawa, ma ke ʻano o ka hana ʻāpana (polysilicon, wafer, cell and module) he mea pono e hoʻokaʻawale i ka honua i ʻeono mau ʻāpana: Xinjiang, ke koena o Kina, Asia Hema, India, US, a me ke koena o ka honua.Malia paha i ka makahiki aʻe, e pāʻani ana ʻo ʻEulopa ma ʻaneʻi, akā no 2022 he mea mua ia e huki ai i waho o ʻEulopa (ma waho aʻe o ka hana ʻana o Wacker i polysilicon ma Kelemānia).
Lawe ʻia ke kiʻi ma lalo mai kahi webinar aʻu i hāʻawi ai i ka pule i hala.Hōʻike ia i ka hana 2022 ma nā wahi like ʻole i hōʻike ʻia ma luna.
Ua lanakila ʻo Kina i ka hana ʻana i nā ʻāpana PV i ka makahiki 2022, me ka nui o ka nānā ʻana i ka nui o ka polysilicon i hana ʻia ma Xinjiang.
Ke hele nei i 2023, nui nā kānalua i kēia manawa, a e hoʻāʻo wau e uhi i kēia i nā mahina e hiki mai ana i kā mākou mau hanana a me nā hiʻohiʻona PV Tech a me nā webinars.
ʻOiai e noho kiʻekiʻe ka traceability a me ka ESG ma ka papa kuhikuhi no ka hapa nui (ʻo ke kūʻai ʻana a me ke kūʻai aku ʻana i nā modula), ʻo ka hoʻopuka o ke kumu kūʻai module (ASP) ka mea e nānā pono loa (hou!).
Ua noho kiʻekiʻe ʻo Module ASP no nā makahiki ʻelua wale nō ma muli o kēia makemake manic no ka lā i kau ʻia ai ka net zero syndrome ma luna o nā aupuni, nā ponohana a me nā ʻoihana honua (ʻo ka solar ka mea hoʻonaninani maikaʻi loa ma muli o ka wikiwiki o ka hoʻolaha ʻana a ma ka pūnaewele / ka hoʻololi ʻana o ka ʻona).ʻOiai inā manaʻo kekahi i kēlā koi (ʻaʻole hiki ke wehewehe inā loaʻa kahi hapa o nā mea hoʻopukapuka kālā) no ka pālua ʻana o ka lā i nā makahiki ʻelua e hiki mai ana, i kekahi manawa e komo ka nui o Kina i ke kahua.
ʻO ka maʻalahi, inā makemake ʻoe e pālua i kekahi mea i ka makahiki aʻe a hoʻolilo ke kaulahao hoʻolako e hana i ʻekolu manawa i ka nui o ka makahiki i hala, lilo kēia i mākeke kūʻai aku a iho ke kumukūʻai o ka waiwai.I ke ao holoʻokoʻa i kēia lā, ʻo ka bottleneck he polysilicon.I ka makahiki 2023, hiki i kekahi mau mākeke ke loaʻa nā bottlenecks ʻē aʻe inā loaʻa nā kūlana lawe mai i kau ʻia ma nā ʻāpana ʻē aʻe o ke kaulahao waiwai (nā cell a i ʻole modules, no ka laʻana).Akā ʻo ka manaʻo nui e pili ana i ka polysilicon a pehea ka nui o ka mana hou e hele mai ma ka pūnaewele ma Kina a me ka mea e hana ai;ʻO ka mana a me ka hana ʻelua mau mea ʻokoʻa loa, ʻoiai ke komo nā mea pāʻani hou i ka lewa.
ʻO ka wānana ʻana i ka hana polysilicon ma 2023 paʻakikī loa i kēia lā.ʻAʻole nui loa e pili ana i ka hana ʻana i ka pae o ka mana hou e 'kūkulu ʻia';ʻoi aku ka nui o nā mea e hana ai kēia a inā e hana ka 'cartel' polysilicon Kina e hoʻomalu i ka lako i mea e paʻa ai.He mea maʻalahi ka hana ʻana o nā mea hana polysilicon Kina ma ke ʻano he hui, a i ʻole cartel, a hoʻolōʻihi i ka hoʻonui ʻana inā pono, a i ʻole e hana i ka mālama lōʻihi i waena o ka makahiki e loaʻa i ka waihona.
Hōʻike ka moʻolelo iā mākou i ke kū'ē.ʻO nā hui Kina e hele i luna i ka wā e pono ai ka mākeke, a ʻoiai ua hoʻonohonoho pono ʻia ka ʻāina e hāʻawi i nā kauoha i nā pae o ka ʻāpana, e hoʻopau i kahi manuahi-no-a pau me ke kālā pau ʻole ma ka papa no nā mea komo hou. he manao oihana.
He mea nui e hoʻomaopopo e hiki ke iho i lalo ke kumu kūʻai polysilicon, akā ke hoʻonui nei ke kumu kūʻai module.He mea paʻakikī paha kēia i ka lawe ʻana no ka mea e kūʻē i ka loiloi maʻamau i loko o ka ʻoihana PV.Akā, he mea ia e hiki mai ana i ka makahiki 2023. E ho'āʻo wau e wehewehe i kēia i kēia manawa.
I loko o kahi mākeke me ka hoʻonui ʻana o ka module (e like me ka hana ʻana o ka ʻoihana PV a hiki i 2020), aia ka manaʻo e hoʻohaʻahaʻa i ka module ASP trending a me ka piʻi ʻana o ke kumukūʻai.Ma ka maʻamau, haʻahaʻa ke kumu kūʻai polysilicon (e manaʻo ʻia ʻoi aku ka nui ma laila).E noʻonoʻo i ka sub US$10/kg i ka lā.
I loko o nā makahiki ʻelua i hala iho nei, ʻaʻole i piʻi ke kumu kūʻai module no ka paʻa ʻana o ka lako polysilicon a piʻi ke kumu kūʻai (ma luna o US $30/kg ka hapa nui), akā no ka mea he mākeke kūʻai module ia.Inā ua emi ke kumu kūʻai polysilicon ma 2022 i US $10/kg, hiki i nā mea hoʻolako module ke kūʻai aku i nā huahana ma ka pae 30-40c/W.He ʻoi aku ka nui o ka palena no nā mea hana wafer, cell a me nā module.ʻAʻole ʻoe e lawe i kahi kumukūʻai inā ʻaʻole pono ʻoe.
No nā mahina he 18 i hala iho nei, he mea kahaha iaʻu ʻaʻole ʻo Beijing (ma hope o nā hiʻohiʻona) 'kauoha' i ka pahu polysilicon ma Kina e hoʻohaʻahaʻa i ke kumu kūʻai.ʻAʻole e kōkua i ke koena o ka honua i ke kūʻai ʻana i nā modula, akā e ʻae i ka ʻāpana kūpono o nā loaʻa ma ke koena o ke kaulahao waiwai hana ma Kina.Hiki iaʻu ke noʻonoʻo ʻaʻole i hiki mai no ka mea ua hiki i nā mea a pau ma Kina ke holomua a mālama i ka 10-15% gross margins - ʻoiai me ka polysilicon e kūʻai aku ana ma US $ 40/kg.ʻO ke kumu wale nō o kahi ʻōlelo Beijing e hōʻike i ka honua o waho ʻo kāna mea hoʻolako polysilicon (e hoʻomanaʻo i ka hapalua o ka polysilicon o Kina i 2022 i hana ʻia ma Xinjiang) ʻaʻole i hōʻike ʻia he 70-80% mau palena ʻoiai ma lalo o ke kukui e kū mai ana mai ka nīnau Xinjiang holoʻokoʻa. .
No laila, ʻaʻole ia he pupule i ka makahiki 2023, aia kekahi mau manawa e iho ai ke kumu kūʻai polysilicon akā ʻaʻole i hoʻopilikia ʻia ke kumu kūʻai module a piʻi paha.
ʻAʻole ia he nūhou maikaʻi wale no nā mea kūʻai aku i ka module i 2023. Aia nā hōʻailona e hiki mai ana ka hoʻonui ʻana i ka pōʻaiapili, ʻoi aku ka nui ma ka hapa mua o 2023 a ʻike mua ʻia paha no nā mea kūʻai module ʻEulopa.ʻO ka hapa nui o kēia e hele mai ana mai ka ʻike ʻana o ka ʻāpana Kina i ka hoʻouna ʻana i nā puke nui i ʻEulopa a ʻoi aku ka ʻoi aku ma mua o ka mea e hiki ai i nā mea hoʻomohala ʻEulopa / EPC ke hana i ka manawa pōkole.
ʻO ka hapa nui o kēia mau kumuhana e lilo i ke kahua waena ma ka hālāwai PV ModuleTech e hiki mai ana ma Malaga, Sepania ma 29-30 Nowemapa 2022. Aia nō nā wahi e hiki mai ana i ka hanana;ʻike hou aku e pili ana i ka loulou ma aneʻi a pehea e kākau inoa ai e hele.ʻAʻohe manawa maikaʻi aʻe no mākou e hoʻopaʻa i kā mākou hālāwai kūkā PV ModuleTech ʻEulopa mua!
Ka manawa hoʻouna: Nov-21-2022