ʻO kahi hōʻike hou ʻo Wood Mackenzie e nānā i nā ʻano a me nā pilikia i ka ulu ʻana o ka mākeke solar US, me ka hana ʻana i hoʻoulu ʻia e ka US Inflation Reduction Act.
Mai ka pv magazine USA
Aia i ka US Inflation Reduction Act o 2022 he $370 biliona i ka hoʻolilo ʻana no ka ikehu hou a me nā ana ʻano ea.Aia ka bila ma mua o $60 biliona nohana halema ke kaulahao lako ikehu maemae.ʻO kēia pae mōʻaukala o ka hoʻopukapuka kālā ke kī i ka loaʻa ʻana o ke kūʻokoʻa hana ʻAmelika a me ka palekana o ka ikehu maʻemaʻe.
ʻO kahi hōʻike hou mai Wood Mackenzie e hōʻike ana e ʻimi ana nā mea hoʻomohala, nā ʻoihana kūʻai ʻenehana (EPC), a me nā mea hana i ke alakaʻi ʻana mai ka US Treasury Department a me ka IRS no ka akaka no ka hoʻolālā ʻana i ka hoʻomohala ʻana o ka lā hou a me ka hoʻopukapuka ʻana i nā hale hana hou. i loko o ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa.
Ke nānā nei ka hōʻike i nā ʻano o kēia ʻoihana ulu, me ka nānā ʻana i nā modula TOPCon ma luna o heterojunction (HJT), ka ulu ʻana o ka mākeke inverter noho honua, ka hoʻonui ʻana o ka hana tracker, kahi hāʻule i manaʻo ʻia i nā kumukūʻai o ka lā a me ka nānā ʻana i nā pilikia e hele ana i mua. .
TOPcon vs. PERC
ʻO TOPCon, ka mea e kū nei no ka tunnel oxide passivated contacts, ua manaʻo ʻia e outtrace heterojunction (HJT), a ʻo ka hōʻike ʻo Wood Mackenzie e hōʻike ana ʻo mono PERC "ʻo ia ka ʻenehana e kaulike ana i ka wā makua a me ka pono", e hōʻike ana i ka TOPCon ka ulu kiʻekiʻe loa ma muli o ke kaʻina hana. nā hoʻomaikaʻi a me ka hoʻonui kumukūʻai.
"ʻO ka PERCʻenehana panelLoaʻa iā ia kahi pihi aʻo wikiwiki loa a ʻo ke koena ma waena o lākou e hilinaʻi i ka mea e hiki ai i kekahi ke hoʻonui i kona pono a i ʻole e hōʻemi i ke kumukūʻai ma mua o ka mea ʻē aʻe, "ʻo Stefan Gunz, ke poʻo o ka noiʻi photovoltaics ma Germany's Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems. (ISE), haʻipv magazinehe makahiki aku nei.
Manaʻo nā mea loiloi ʻo Wood Mackenzie ua hōʻea nā modules TOPCon i ka 25% pono i ka hana nui a hiki ke piʻi i 28.7%
ʻO ka hoʻonui ʻana i ka hana ʻana mai ka hana mono PERC a hiki i TOPCon kahi hoʻopukapuka maʻalahi a haʻahaʻa haʻahaʻa, a manaʻo ka poʻe loiloi e hiki ke hoʻokō ʻia kahi hana lab o 27% ma o ka hoʻomaikaʻi ʻana i ka metala a me nā wafers lahilahi.Hoʻomaopopo ʻo Wood Mackenzie e manaʻo ana kekahi mau mea hana i ka mānoanoa wafer awelika no nā modules TOPCon format nui e hoʻemi i ka 20 μm i kēia makahiki i 120 μm, e hoʻokau i ka hapa nui o nā hōʻemi kumukūʻai ma 2023.
Ke hoʻoulu nei ka Inflation Reduction Act i ka hana ʻana o nā module US ma muli o ka $30 biliona i nā hōʻaiʻē ʻauhau hana a me ka hōʻaiʻē ʻauhau kālā he $10 biliona e kūkulu i nā hale hana ʻenehana maʻemaʻe.Manaʻo ʻo Wood Mackenzie iā ʻAmelikaka mana hana modulee oi aku i ka 15 GW ma ka hopena o keia makahiki.
ʻO ka nīnau nui, ʻo ia ka wehewehe ʻana o "nā lako i hana ʻia i loko o ka hale", a inā paha e hui ʻia nā modules ma ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa, a inā i hana ʻia nā ʻāpana āpau ma US.ʻO ka paʻakikī no nā mea hana module, ʻaʻohe ʻano wafer a i ʻole ka hana kelepona ma US, ʻoiai ke loli nei me nā hoʻolaha hou e nā hui me Qcells a me CubicPV.ʻO ka ʻokoʻa o ka wehewehe ʻana o ka ʻike kūloko "hiki ke hoʻopilikia nui i ka hiki ke hana module i nā makahiki ʻelima e hiki mai ana", ʻōlelo ka hōʻike.Manaʻo ka poʻe loiloi ma kahi o 45 GWdc o nā hoʻolaha mana hou e hele mai ma ka pūnaewele e 2026.
ʻO ka ulu ʻana o ka lā ma US e hoʻoheheʻe ʻia ma o ke kaulahao lako, e hoʻonui ana i ka ulu ʻana o nā inverters a me nā trackers, ma waena o nā mea kākoʻo ʻē aʻe.Ua hōʻike ka Wood Mackenzie i ka hoʻololi ʻana o nā kulekele hou, me ka EU's REPowerEU, ka hoʻokō ʻana o India i nā Production Linked Incentives (PLI) a me ka US IRA, e hoʻolalelale i ka hoʻohana ʻana i ka lā i kēia mau ʻāina, no laila e kōkua ana i nā ʻāina e hoʻokō i kā lākou mau pahuhopu.
Wahi a ka hōʻike, e ulu ka mākeke inverter hale ma ka honua holoʻokoʻa i 2023. Me ka rooftop solar loaʻa ka manawa, ʻoi aku hoʻi i nā ʻāina e like me India a me Kelemānia, e loaʻa kahi hoʻonui kūpono i ka mākeke no nā microinverters, string inverters a me DC optimizers, ka nā koho inverter kaulana loa no ka hoʻokomo ʻana i luna.ʻO ka mea nui, e ʻike nā mea hoʻohuli i nā kaula me nā mākaʻi mana kiʻekiʻe loa (MPPTs) i ka piʻi ʻana o ka mākeke ma 2023.
E ʻike nā mea hoʻohuli noho i ka hoʻohana nui ʻana o ka naʻauao artificial i kāna algorithms.E ʻike ʻia ka 11% o ka mākeke mana o ka module-level power electronics (MLPEs) a me ka hoʻohuli ʻana i ke kaula i hoʻokahi manawa, ka mea kaulana loa i ka hoʻokomo ʻana o ka lā ma luna o ka hale. ke komo ʻana i ka mākeke, a ʻo ka hoʻokūkū e hiki mai ana e hoʻomaka i ka hāʻule o ke kumukūʻai mai 2% a i 4% i 2023.
ʻO kahi paʻakikī e hoʻomau nei no nā mea hana inverter ʻo ia ka hemahema o ka chip honua, kahi i manaʻo ai ka poʻe loiloi Wood Mackenzie e hoʻomau a hiki i 2023 a kahe a hiki i 2024. e hōʻoia i ka maikaʻi o kā lākou inverters, kūpono a me ke ola.Wahi a Wood Mac ʻaʻole e iho ke kumu kūʻai inverter a hiki i kēia makahiki.
Ke wikiwiki nei ka hana ʻana o ka tracker home ma kekahi mau wahi o ka honua ma muli o nā hoʻoikaika aupuni a me nā pilikia logistical i ʻike ʻia i ka wā maʻi COVID-19.Wahi a nā mea loiloi ʻo Wood Mackenzie, e hāʻule nā kumukūʻai tracker ma India a ma United States.Manaʻo lākou i ʻoi aku ka paʻa o ka lako kila ma US a me India, ʻoi aku hoʻi me ka hoʻonui ʻana i ka hana kila.E kū ana naʻe ʻo ʻEulopa i kahi imbalance ma ka mākeke kila.ʻOiai ʻoi aku ma mua o 60% o ka haku mele ʻana he kila, ʻo kēia rebound i ke koi kila e hopena i ka hoʻokūkū nui ma ka māhele mākeke tracker no nā mea kūʻai aku, wahi a Wood Mackenzie nā mea loiloi, e manaʻo ana e hāʻule nā kumukūʻai 2023 no nā trackers e 5% ma United States, Brazil a Kina.
Nā koina o ka lā
E hoʻomau ka hāʻule ʻana o nā kumukūʻai kālā, e alakaʻi ʻia e ka hoʻohana nui ʻana i nā modules TOPcon.Manaʻo ka poʻe loiloi ʻo Wood Mackenzie e hāʻule nā kumukūʻai polysilicon i kēia makahiki a manaʻo lākou e kū nei300 GWE hiki i ka 900 GW ka nui o ka honua ma ka hopena o 2023.
"Ke wānana nei mākou ma mua o 1 miliona Mt o ka hoʻonui polysilicon e hele mai ma ka pūnaewele ma 2023. Aia ka hapa nui o ka mana hou ma Kina.Eia nō naʻe, ke manaʻoʻiʻo nei mākou ʻo ka 10% i hoʻopaʻa ʻia ma waho o Kina e kauoha i ke kumukūʻai kumukūʻai no ka mea ʻaʻole ia he uku a me nā pilikia kulekele ʻē aʻe.
ʻO kahi paʻakikī e hoʻomau nei ka maopopo ʻole e pili ana i nā kumukūʻai antidumping/countervailing (AD/CVD).Me ka US Department of Commerce i manaʻo ʻia e hoʻolaha i kona manaʻo hoʻoholo hope loa i Mei 2023, manaʻo ʻo Wood Mackenzie e hiki ke hana i nā hana mai 16% a i 254% e pili ana i ka ʻāina kumu.ʻO ka manaʻo hoʻoholo mua, i hoʻokuʻu ʻia ma Dekemaba 2022, loaʻa nā hui tier 1, e like me Trina, BYD, Vina (kahi ʻāpana o Longi) a me Canadian Solar, e hoʻopuni ana i nā kumukūʻai Kina.ʻO ka hoʻoholo mua i hoʻopau iā Hanwha lāua ʻo Jinko e hopena i kahi hōʻoluʻolu i ka loaʻa ʻana o nā module i 2023.
Ma ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa, e hoʻomau ka poʻe hoʻomohala i ka nānā ʻana i nā koi o ka IRA, e komo pū ana me ka uku lanakila a me ka hoʻohui ʻana i nā bonus ʻikepili home no nā papahana pono-nui e hoʻomaka ana i ke kūkulu ʻia ma 2023. 'ai'ē, pono nā papahana a pau i oi aku ma mua o 1 MWac e uku i kāna poʻe limahana i ka uku lanakila a hoʻokumu i kahi papahana haumana.
Ma ʻEulopa, manaʻo ke kulekele REPowerEU e hoʻokomo i ka 320 GW o ka solar PV e 2025 a me 600 GW ma lalo o kāna hoʻolālā ikehu solar EU.No ka hoʻokō ʻana i kēia mau pahuhopu koʻikoʻi, pono ia e kūkulu i kahi hale hana ikaika i loko o ka ʻāina.ʻO ka European Solar Photovoltaic Industry Alliance hou, e hana i kahi hoʻolālā e kōkua i ka hoʻopaʻa kālā no ka hana ʻana a me ka hoʻolaha ʻana i ka noiʻi a me ka hana hou i ka ʻenehana module, ma waena o nā ʻenehana zero-carbon.
ʻO kahi paʻakikī hope loa ihana PVma ʻEulopa, e like me ka Wood Mackenzie analysts, ʻo ia ke kumukūʻai hoʻokūkū mai ka ʻāina APAC ma muli o kāna kumukūʻai kiʻekiʻe o ka ikehu, hana a me nā mea waiwai, akā hiki ke pōmaikaʻi mai nā mea kūʻai aku makemake e uku i ka uku no ka ʻenehana ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi a me ka ʻike i ke kaulahao lako.
Ka manawa hoʻouna: Jan-29-2023